MLB Handicapping Plays, Write-Ups, Trends, Information

5/22/13 1:10pm Reds-Mets Game

Why we like the Reds on Wednesday at -103...the Reds are undervalued in this spot after winning their last 9 of 11 games as well as averaging 5 rpg while allowing 2 rpg during that span compared to the Mets who have lost their last 9 of 12 games while averaging 3 rpg and allowing 5 rpg during that span. The reason that the Mets are the early favorite in this one is because of the public perception of the Mets young phenom in Matt Harvey who brings his 5-0 record to match his 1.56 era into Wednesdays daytime matchup. The first area for concern with Harvey is that Wednesdays start will be the first time in 2013 that a team will be facing him for the second time, especially the hot hitting Reds. Along with that is the fact that Harvey's last two starts have come against the below average offensive teams in the Pirates and Cubs where he has seen his K totals decrease in May where as his Hits allowed totals have increased. A few more numbers of interest is the fact that Harvey has allowed just 3 HRs all season with all 3 of those coming on 4 days of rest (which he will be on Wednesday) and two of those three HRs coming during the day.
The Reds will be starting Mat Latos who comes into Wednesdays game with a 2-0 road record to match his 2.53 era. Latos has also posted good numbers during the day this season where he has a 3-0 record and a 3.82 era where he has allowed just 3 HRs through 30 innings of work. This Mets team has a combined 60 ABs off of Latos where they have a .200 average with just 1 HR. A few trends to keep in mind for Wednesdays game are that the Reds are 10-4 with a total of 7 or less while the Mets are 7-6 with a total of 7 or less. The Reds are 13-8 in day games while the Mets are 9-11 in day games. The Reds are 8-2 against the Mets over the last three seasons. Play on the Reds at -103.